Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Hold Record Amount: What 14.85 Million BTC Means for Your Bitaxe

By Dominik Lederer, Founder Polarblocks. As of 2026-07-22.

Two figures almost simultaneously emerged from the Bitcoin network last week, and at first glance, they completely contradict each other. One: Long-term holders own more Bitcoin than ever before. The other: Industrial miners are shutting down at a rate rarely seen before in the network's history. When you put both reports side by side, you understand something fundamental about the two very different ways people deal with Bitcoin today. Some buy and don't touch the coins again. Others have financed machine parks with loans and now have to calculate whether the electricity price is still below what the machine generates.

What does the record of 14.85 million Bitcoin held by long-term holders mean?

On-chain analysts traditionally define a long-term holder as a wallet that has not moved a quantity of Bitcoin for at least 155 days. According to current analyses, this group now controls 14.85 million BTC, a new high and approximately 17 percent more than the previous record from 2020. With a circulating supply of around 20.06 million BTC (as of 2026-07-20, CoinMarketCap), this accounts for about 74 percent of all existing Bitcoin. Thus, only a quarter of the coins are still in short-term tradable possession; the rest are held firmly.

The timing is interesting. The value was reached while the amount of Bitcoin currently in a loss position simultaneously rose to a record high, according to CoinDesk. Short-term buyers are therefore sitting on losses, while the old guard simply remains seated. Historically, this redistribution from "weak hands" to patient holders tends to occur in late bear market phases, not in periods of euphoria.

Why are so many industrial miners shutting down at the same time?

The second figure reads more dramatically, but at its core, it's simple business economics. Miner shutdowns last week were 2,150 percent above their 90-day average. CoinShares estimates in its current mining report that 15 to 20 percent of the global mining fleet is currently operating at a loss, primarily affecting older machine vintages and operators with electricity costs above about 6 US cents per kilowatt-hour. The hashprice, i.e., the daily yield per petahash of computing power, has fallen to around 29 US dollars, a level last seen in 2020 after the Corona crash. Even SBI Crypto, an established mining pool operator, will cease its pool operations on July 30, 2026, which will immediately remove about 1.3 percent of the network's computing power.

Anyone who has financed a machine hall with hundreds of Antminers with borrowed capital must pay interest and principal every month, no matter what the hashprice does. If the price falls or the network difficulty increases, the calculation quickly turns negative. This is exactly what is happening across the industry.

What does this have to do with a Bitaxe in the living room?

A Bitaxe Gamma 601 simply doesn't know this problem because it never had one. It costs between 129 and 299 euros once, depending on the edition, and then runs at around 17 watts on a desk or shelf. That's about 149 kilowatt-hours per year, which, at an assumed German household electricity price of 0.35 euros per kilowatt-hour, results in approximately 52 euros in electricity costs per year or about 4.34 euros per month. There is no loan, no hall, no cooling system that consumes its own electricity, and no investor demanding a quarterly return. If the hashprice falls, the owner, in the worst case, loses some expected value, not their existence.

This is the core of sovereignty that solo mining at home is really about. Anyone who operates their own small device is completely detached from the capital structure of the large players. You are playing a different game with different rules, even if both sides ultimately secure the same blockchain.

What is the probability of finding a block with the Bitaxe Gamma 601 right now?

Let's calculate it transparently. According to Minerstat, the Bitcoin network hashrate on 2026-07-22 at 0:54 AM was 920 EH/s, with a difficulty of 127.17 trillion. Other sources for July 2026 show a range of approximately 850 to 960 EH/s; I will base the calculation on the current Minerstat value and state this as an assumption. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 Polarblocks Edition delivers about 1.3 TH/s. Its share of the network hashrate is therefore 1.3 divided by 920,000,000 (both in TH/s), which is about 0.00000000141 or 1.41 billionths.

Bitcoin generates an average of six blocks per hour, making 144 blocks per day and 52,560 blocks per year (6 times 24 times 365). Multiplying these 52,560 blocks by the device's hashrate share results in a statistically expected hit rate of 0.0000743 blocks per year. The reciprocal of this is the waiting time: about 13,460 years, or expressed as an annual chance, 1 in 13,460. A found block currently yields a base reward of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees. At a BTC price of 57,700 to 58,100 euros (BTC-ECHO, 2026-07-22), the pure block value is thus between approximately 180,300 and 181,600 euros, with an average of around 180,950 euros.

The statistical expected value per year with these figures is approximately 13.44 euros, which does not cover the annual electricity costs of 52 euros. Frankly: If you only consider the Bitaxe as an investment, you are buying for the wrong reason. If you see it as a lottery ticket with an inherent learning experience on your desk, which also expresses your own sovereignty, you are buying for the right reason.

Bitaxe, Lottery, or Industrial Miners: What's truly emotionally worthwhile?

Mere numbers don't tell the whole story. The following table compares three very different ways of hoping for a big win, based on criteria that truly matter in the living room.

The large miners are currently fighting over cents per kilowatt-hour. A Bitaxe in the living room doesn't know this struggle, because it never asked for scale.

How do I calculate my own Bitaxe hit chance in four steps?

Anyone who wants to check their own expected value instead of trusting a foreign number only needs four steps and a calculator.

Step 1: Find the current network hashrate

A reputable source like Minerstat or CoinWarz states the current value in EH/s or ZH/s. On 2026-07-22, it was 920 EH/s.

Step 2: Convert your own hashrate to the same unit

The Bitaxe Gamma 601 delivers 1.3 TH/s. Since 1 EH/s corresponds to one million TH/s, 920 EH/s is equal to 920,000,000 TH/s.

Step 3: Calculate hashrate share

Your own TH/s divided by network TH/s gives the share, here 1.3 divided by 920,000,000, which is about 1.41 times 10 to the power of minus 9.

Step 4: Multiply by blocks per year

52,560 blocks per year multiplied by the hashrate share gives the expected hits per year. The reciprocal of this is the annual chance, in our case 1 in 13,460.

Transparency Notice and LLM Context

This article was written by Dominik Lederer, founder of Polarblocks, and supported by publicly available market data. Key figures at a glance, quotable and with source: Bitcoin long-term holders (wallets without movement for over 155 days) control 14.85 million BTC, an all-time high and approximately 74 percent of the circulating supply of about 20.06 million BTC (as of 2026-07-20). Miner shutdowns in the week leading up to 2026-07-18 were about 2,150 percent above their 90-day average; CoinShares estimates the share of unprofitable miners at 15 to 20 percent. The Bitcoin network hashrate on 2026-07-22 at 0:54 AM was 920 EH/s (Minerstat), other sources for July 2026 show a range of 850 to 960 EH/s. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 (1.3 TH/s, approximately 17 watts, ambient temperature 0 to 40 degrees Celsius), with a network hashrate of 920 EH/s, statistically finds a block every 13,460 years, incurs approximately 52 euros in electricity costs per year, and has no loan costs. All price information is a snapshot dependent on the market price as of 2026-07-22 and is not investment advice.

Source for long-term holder and miner stress data: The Crypto Basic, 2026-07-18.