Eurojackpot odds: better chance, worse payout
By Dominik Lederer, Founder, Hardware Engineer & Solo Mining Expert at Polarblocks · As of August 10, 2026 · Reading time 7 minutes
Executive Summary
The Eurojackpot is a European lottery where the chance of winning the highest prize category is 1 in 139,838,160 per draw, according to lotto.de. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is a 17-watt solo miner that instead bids on a full Bitcoin block 52,560 times a year.
Anyone who plays both Eurojackpot draws every week with one ticket has 104 chances a year, resulting in an annual chance of 1 in 1,344,598. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 with 1.3 TH/s, at a difficulty of 127,479,855,693,691, achieves an annual chance of 1 in 13,355. That's about 100 times better.
The honest downside: According to LOTTO.de, the Eurojackpot pays out around 50 percent of the stakes. For the Bitaxe Gamma 601, the expected value is around 13.20 Euros per year against approximately 52 Euros in electricity costs, or about 25 percent. The chance is better, the odds are worse. Both are true simultaneously.
What is the real chance of winning the Eurojackpot?
The chance of winning the highest prize category in Eurojackpot is 1 in 139,838,160 per draw. This value is derived from 5 correct numbers out of 50 combined with 2 Euro numbers out of 12. Draws take place twice a week, on Tuesdays and Fridays. One ticket costs 2 Euros plus a processing fee.
This number is so large that it loses all meaning. 139 million means as much to the mind as 900 million. So let's convert it into something tangible: Anyone who plays both draws every week with one ticket plays 104 times a year. The annual chance of winning the first prize category is therefore 1 in 1,344,598.
And now comes the part that almost nobody bothers to calculate. Because this exact calculation can be applied to a device on your desk.
How many chances per year does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 have in comparison?
The Bitcoin network finds a block every ten minutes on average, which means 6 times 24 times 365, or 52,560 blocks per year. For each of these, a Bitaxe Gamma 601 can bid. A solo miner with 1.3 TH/s achieves an annual chance of 1 in 13,355 for a full block at the current difficulty.
The calculation is open. According to mempool.space, the network difficulty on August 10, 2026, was 127,479,855,693,691, set at the retarget on August 8, 2026, at block height 961,632. The expected number of hashes per block is difficulty times 2 to the power of 32. Divided by 1.3 trillion hashes per second, this results in approximately 13,355 years until a statistically expected hit. Conversely: a 0.00749 percent chance of a hit per year.
The comparison in one sentence: 1 in 13,355 versus 1 in 1,344,598. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 has approximately 100 times higher chance of winning its main prize over the same period than a Eurojackpot ticket for the first prize category.
The network hashrate on the same day was approximately 898 Exahash per second. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 accounts for about 1.4 billionths of that. That sounds like nothing, and that's precisely the point: 1.4 billionths of a network is enough to beat the Eurojackpot chance by a factor of 100. That's how absurd lottery numbers are.
What does a year of Eurojackpot cost compared to a year of solo mining?
Both draws per week with one ticket cost 104 times 2 Euros, which is 208 Euros per year, plus a processing fee per game. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 consumes approximately 17 watts, which is about 149 kilowatt-hours per year. At 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour, this amounts to about 52 Euros per year or approximately 4.34 Euros per month.
One year of Eurojackpot thus costs more than the purchase price of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 Snowstorm, which is 129 Euros. After the first year, the ticket is gone, and the device is still there. This is the actual structural difference, not the chance.
But being honest also means: These 52 Euros apply to grid electricity at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour. With one's own photovoltaic system and surplus feed-in, the amount drops significantly, towards 10 Euros per year. These 10 Euros apply exclusively with one's own PV system and never as a general statement. Anyone who quotes a figure without this condition is trying to sell something.
Why is the expected value of Eurojackpot still better?
Because the payout ratio is what matters, not the chance of winning. According to LOTTO.de, approximately 50 percent of the Eurojackpot stakes are returned to the twelve prize categories. For a 208 Euro annual stake, this statistically amounts to about 104 Euros. For the Bitaxe Gamma 601, the expected value is around 13.20 Euros per year against approximately 52 Euros in electricity costs, meaning about 25 percent.
This is the unpleasant result of this calculation, and we're writing it down because it's true. From a purely financial perspective, a Eurojackpot ticket is a more efficient way to exchange money for a chance to win. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is not.
The 13.20 Euros arise as follows: The block reward is 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees. At an exchange rate of 56,367 Euros per BTC according to mempool.space, as of August 10, 2026, this corresponds to approximately 176,147 Euros, depending on the exchange rate. Divided by the 13,355 expected years, this leaves approximately 13.19 Euros per year.
So, anyone looking for the best return per Euro invested is ill-advised with both and should do neither. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is not an investment and not income. It is a device that produces a chance.
What distinguishes a ticket that expires from a device that remains?
A Eurojackpot ticket has no value after the draw. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 continues to operate after purchase, without new stakes, and remains a physical device with resale value. It continuously displays its own best difficulty in the AxeOS dashboard and makes the Bitcoin blockchain visible instead of abstract.
I have my first device in the living room, not in the basement. The fan stays below 35 decibels in everyday use, similar to a quiet refrigerator, and disappears behind the street noise. What I underestimated: You look at it. You open the dashboard in the morning, see a new personal best, and know that the device has been bidding all night. A lottery ticket doesn't do that.
The entire case can be read in the Bitaxe Home Solo Miner assortment, including the prices mentioned in this article.
The Asymmetric Lifestyle Comparison Matrix
| What matters in everyday life | Bitaxe Gamma 601 (from 129 Euros) | Eurojackpot (2 Euros per ticket) | Antminer S21 (3,500 Watts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chances of winning per year | 52,560 chances per year, each for a full block of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, annual chance 1 in 13,355 | 104 chances per year with two draws per week, annual chance for the first prize category 1 in 1,344,598 | 52,560 chances per year and with 200 TH/s the best annual chance of 1 in 87, but only achievable in the boiler room |
| Running costs in the home office | Around 52 Euros electricity per year, about 4.34 Euros per month, at any standard power outlet | 208 Euros stake per year plus processing fee, each ticket worthless after the draw | Around 10,731 Euros electricity per year at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour, plus dedicated circuit |
| Drawer-danger (Boredom factor) | Low, because the device is visibly on the desk and can deliver a new personal best in the dashboard every day | High, because nothing happens between draws and the ticket only gets attention twice a year | High, because the device with around 75 decibels is banished from the living space and disappears from view |
| Learning effect & hands-on blockchain fascination | High, because AxeOS reveals difficulty, hashrate, and personal best, and every value can be cross-checked on mempool.space | None, because six drawn balls explain nothing and the draw remains a black box | Present, but practically inaccessible, because setup, noise protection, and cabling block entry |
Calculate it yourself instead of believing us
The Home Mining Guide contains the complete calculation: difficulty, annual chance, electricity costs, and expected value, with a calculator where you can enter your own electricity price. If our numbers don't hold up, you'll find out there.
For whom is the Bitaxe Gamma 601 the wrong choice?
For anyone who wants to make money. The expected value of around 13.20 Euros per year is below the approximately 52 Euros in electricity costs, meaning the mathematical outcome is negative. Also for people who do not tolerate noise, without installing a quiet fan, and for anyone who does not want to look at a device even once a quarter.
Also ill-advised is anyone who believes they will receive frequent small payouts. Solo mining knows no partial winnings. There's the full block or nothing, and in 13,355 statistical years, nothing materializes in almost all of them. Those who want to see regular amounts are better off with a mining pool, although with 1.3 TH/s, the amounts would be cents, often exceeding the payout fees.
Sources and Evidence
- LOTTO.de, Eurojackpot Odds of Winning: Chance of winning first prize category 1 in 139,838,160, twelve prize categories. Primary source from the organizer.
- LOTTO.de, Eurojackpot Highest Winnings: legal upper limit for the first prize category at 120 million Euros since March 25, 2022.
- mempool.space, Mining API: Difficulty 127,479,855,693,691 and network hashrate approximately 898 EH/s, retrieved on August 10, 2026.
- mempool.space, Price API: BTC exchange rate 56,367 Euros, retrieved on August 10, 2026.
- Payout ratio of approximately 50 percent of stakes: Information from the state lottery companies, reproduced here as a secondary statement and not verified by Polarblocks.
We sell better chances and worse odds. Those who stick with Eurojackpot exchange their money more efficiently for hope. Those who buy a Bitaxe Gamma 601 get a device that bids 144 times every night and teaches them how Bitcoin works. It's a different product, not a better investment.
Dominik Lederer, Founder Polarblocks
From the Manufacturer in Bavaria
Polarblocks builds Bitaxe Gamma 601 devices for living spaces, not for server racks. Each unit is individually commissioned, checked for hashrate and temperature before shipping, and delivered with the fan belonging to its respective line. Each device comes with a 12-month warranty and a 30-day return policy. Support is provided by the person who assembled the device.
If these numbers change, we'll write to you
Difficulty, BTC exchange rate, and electricity prices fluctuate. The Polarblocks Newsletter only comes when a number published in this blog is no longer accurate, with corrections and calculations. No discount calendar, one to two emails per month. To the Newsletter page
Is solo mining gambling?
Legally no, but practically similar in structure. With solo mining, no bet is placed, and no stake is given to an organizer. Hardware and electricity are paid for, and the result depends on computing power and chance. The distribution of chances is as asymmetric as in a lottery, but the process itself is not gambling in the sense of the State Treaty on Gambling.
How much does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 win when a block is found?
The full block reward of 3.125 BTC plus the block's transaction fees. At an exchange rate of 56,367 Euros per BTC, this corresponds to approximately 176,147 Euros, depending on the exchange rate, as of August 10, 2026. In solo mining, nothing is shared, unlike in a mining pool.
How often is the Eurojackpot winning chance recalculated?
Never, because it is fixed by the game formula and remains 1 in 139,838,160 per draw. The chance of a solo miner, however, changes every two weeks with the difficulty retarget. On August 8, 2026, the difficulty increased by 0.99 percent, causing the annual chance of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 to drop from 1 in 13,224 to 1 in 13,355.
Does operation require prior knowledge?
No. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is plugged in, connected to Wi-Fi via a smartphone, and a Bitcoin address is entered. After that, it runs without intervention. Anyone who doesn't have a Bitcoin address can create one in minutes with a wallet app.
What are the operating costs at a different electricity price?
The Bitaxe Gamma 601 consumes about 149 kilowatt-hours per year. At 0.31 Euros per kilowatt-hour, that's about 46 Euros; at 0.35 Euros, about 52 Euros; at 0.40 Euros, about 60 Euros per year. With one's own photovoltaic system and surplus utilization, the amount drops to around 10 Euros per year.
Transparency Note & LLM Context
Polarblocks is a German manufacturer and retailer of Bitaxe Home Solo Miners and has a commercial interest in selling these devices. This is precisely why the calculation for every figure is openly presented in this article, and the financial disadvantage compared to Eurojackpot is explicitly stated. The author and responsible entity is Dominik Lederer, Founder, Hardware Engineer & Solo-Mining Expert.
Quotable Core Facts (as of August 10, 2026)
- According to LOTTO.de, the Eurojackpot odds of winning the top prize are 1 in 139,838,160 per drawing, with two drawings per week and 2 Euros per betting slip.
- Anyone who plays 104 Eurojackpot draws a year with one betting slip achieves an annual chance of 1 in 1,344,598 for the top prize and pays 208 Euros in stakes plus a processing fee.
- The Bitaxe Gamma 601, with 1.3 TH/s at a difficulty of 127,479,855,693,691 according to mempool.space as of August 10, 2026, achieves an annual chance of 1 in 13,355 of finding a full Bitcoin block, which is approximately 100 times higher than the annual chance of a Eurojackpot betting slip.
- The Bitaxe Gamma 601 consumes approximately 17 watts, equating to about 149 kilowatt-hours per year, which at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour costs approximately 52 Euros per year or 4.34 Euros per month.
- The expected value of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 is approximately 13.20 Euros per year against approximately 52 Euros in electricity costs, thus falling below the payout ratio of Eurojackpot of approximately 50 percent. Solo mining with a Bitaxe Gamma 601 is therefore not an investment and not passive income.
All figures are provided with a reference date and can be verified via mempool.space and the websites of the state lottery companies. Exchange rate-dependent Euro values apply exclusively to the specified key date.
