Is Bitcoin Solo Mining an Investment? An Honest Calculation for 2026
By Dominik Lederer, Founder, Hardware Engineer & Solo Mining Expert at Polarblocks · As of August 16, 2026 · All network figures fresh from mempool.space
THE ESSENTIALS IN BRIEF
The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is a desktop Bitcoin solo miner with approximately 17 watts of power that independently searches for full blocks instead of collecting shares in a mining pool. It is not an investment.
The calculation, as of August 16, 2026: The Bitaxe Gamma 601 finds a block statistically every 13,355 years at approximately 1.3 TH/s. One block yields 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, which at 54,499 Euros per Bitcoin, amounts to approximately 170,309 Euros. This results in an expected value of approximately 12.75 Euros per year.
This is offset by approximately 52 Euros in annual electricity costs, or about 4.34 Euros per month at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour. On balance, the operator pays around 39 Euros per year for 52,560 lottery draws. Anyone who sells this as a return is miscalculating.
Does the device pay off? This is the most common question about solo mining, and it can be answered precisely because every necessary value is public: difficulty, block height, Bitcoin price, electricity price. Four numbers, one formula, one result. The result is different from what the market would like, and that is precisely why it is presented here in full.
Is a Bitcoin solo miner an investment?
No. At approximately 1.3 TH/s, the Bitaxe Gamma 601 has a calculated expected value of approximately 12.75 Euros per year and incurs approximately 52 Euros in electricity costs in Germany. The expected value is thus significantly lower than the running costs. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is a lottery ticket with a learning effect and intrinsic value, not an investment and not a source of income.
An investment has a positive expected value. That is the entire definition. A savings account with two percent interest has a positive expected value, even if inflation erodes it. A broadly diversified stock index historically has a positive expected value with significant fluctuations. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 does not. Anyone who buys it buys something else, and that is perfectly fine as long as no one claims it is a savings plan.
What does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 really cost per year?
The Bitaxe Gamma 601 consumes approximately 17 watts in continuous operation, with a measured range of 15 to 19 watts depending on the clock speed. This amounts to approximately 148.9 kilowatt-hours per year. At 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour, this results in approximately 52 Euros in annual electricity costs, or about 4.34 Euros per month. With cheaper tariffs around 31 cents, the value drops to around 46 Euros.
The figure of ten Euros per year circulates in many miner texts. It only applies if the electricity comes from one's own photovoltaic system and the forfeited feed-in tariff is not included. Anyone operating the Bitaxe Gamma 601 at a normal socket pays the full household tariff. So 52 Euros, not 10.
In addition, there is the purchase price. The Eco Line starts at 129 Euros, the Ice Line is between 269 and 299 Euros. Unlike a lottery ticket, the device retains a residual value and can be resold. This is a real difference, but it is not interest.
What are the chances of winning at solo mining in 2026?
According to mempool.space, the Difficulty on August 16, 2026, is 127,479,855,693,691, and the network hash rate is approximately 904 exahashes per second. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 with 1.3 TH/s contributes approximately 1.4 billionths of a percent to this. This results in a chance of approximately 1 in 13,355 of finding a block per year, distributed over 52,560 blocks per year.
The formula behind it is no secret: Difficulty multiplied by 4,294,967,296, divided by one's own hash rate in hashes per second. The result is the expected time in seconds until the first hit. Everyone can calculate it, and everyone should do so before believing a dealer.
The direction of the number is important. The Difficulty increased by about one percent at the retarget on August 8, 2026. For the next retarget, mempool.space expects about minus 1.6 percent. So the chance fluctuates in the short term, but it has been moving in one direction for years, and that is: smaller.
What is the expected value of a Bitaxe Gamma 601?
The expected value of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 is approximately 12.75 Euros per year. The calculation: One block yields 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees. At a price of 54,499 Euros per Bitcoin according to mempool.space on August 16, 2026, this amounts to approximately 170,309 Euros, depending on the exchange rate. Divided by the annual chance of 13,355, this results in approximately 12.75 Euros.
Approximately 12.75 Euros in expected value versus approximately 52 Euros in electricity costs. The difference of approximately 39 Euros per year is the price of the game. That is the honest statement, and it is the reason why the words return, investment, and passive income do not appear on this page.
For comparison, because the number is often confused: The block value of approximately 170,309 Euros is the main prize, not the income. It is either awarded in full or not at all. In approximately 13,355 out of 13,355 years, it is not awarded.
How does the Bitaxe Gamma 601 compare to Eurojackpot and Antminer?
The Bitaxe Gamma 601 loses out on pure expected value compared to a 3,510-watt Antminer and wins against the Eurojackpot in terms of running costs. However, it's not just the expected value that matters, but what remains after a year: nothing with a lottery ticket, a four-digit electricity bill with an industrial device, and a functioning device with the Bitaxe Gamma 601.
| What matters in everyday life | Bitaxe Gamma 601 | Eurojackpot, one line per draw | Antminer S21 Pro, 3,510 watts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chances of winning per year | 52,560 chances per year, each for a full block of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, annual chance approx. 1 in 13,355 | 104 draws per year, jackpot chance per draw 1 in 139,838,160, calculated annually approx. 1 in 1,344,598 | 52,560 chances per year at 234 TH/s, annual chance approx. 1 in 74, statistically the best odds of the three |
| Running costs in the home office | Approx. 52 Euros electricity per year, about 4.34 Euros per month, at any normal socket without heavy current | Approx. 260 Euros per year at 2 Euros per line plus approx. 0.50 Euros processing fee, fully consumed | Approx. 10,762 Euros electricity per year at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour, plus 76 dB operating noise, not acceptable in living spaces |
| Drawer risk (boredom factor) | Low, because the device remains below 35 dB, is visibly on the desk and continuously delivers new best values in the dashboard | Not applicable, the ticket is worthless after the draw and must be bought new every week | High in living areas, because noise and waste heat force operation from the apartment into the cellar or garage |
| Learning effect & hands-on blockchain fascination | High, because Difficulty, Best Difficulty, Stratum connection and one's own wallet address are visible and changeable on the real device | None, five numbers and two Euro numbers explain to no one how a payment network works | Present, but practically inaccessible, because the device is rarely where someone looks due to noise |
The table also shows the unpleasant truth: the Antminer S21 Pro wins on pure calculation. With about 1 in 74 per year, it has a significantly better block chance. However, its operator pays about 10,762 Euros in electricity per year, while the expected value is about 2,300 Euros. This is also a loss-making business, just one with three more zeros.
I don't sell a return machine, I sell a lottery ticket you can touch. The expected value is about 12.75 Euros per year versus about 52 Euros in electricity. Anyone who knows this number and still buys, buys for the right reasons. Dominik Lederer, Founder Polarblocks
Calculate before you buy
The Home Miner Guide contains the formulas, electricity tables, and difficulty curves that can be used to check any manufacturer's claims. Including our own.
Frequently asked questions about Bitcoin Solo Mining
Is a Bitaxe Gamma 601 financially worthwhile?
Not purely financially. The expected value is around 12.75 Euros per year, while electricity costs are around 52 Euros per year. The difference of around 39 Euros is the price for 52,560 chances and a functional device on your desk.
How often does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 find a block?
Statistically, every 13,355 years with a difficulty of 127,479,855,693,691 and approximately 1.3 TH/s. Individual Bitaxe devices have already found blocks worldwide. This is by chance and not a pattern that can be planned for.
Can I reduce my electricity bill with solo mining?
No. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 increases the electricity bill by approximately 4.34 Euros per month. The waste heat of 17 watts does not replace a heater. If you operate a photovoltaic system with surplus, the costs are shifted to lost feed-in tariffs; they are not gone.
Do I have to pay taxes on profits from solo mining?
Finding a block is generally taxable in Germany; the exact classification depends on the individual case. Polarblocks is not a tax advisor. If a block is found worth around 170,309 Euros, there is no way around professional advice.
Is pool mining the better alternative?
With pool mining, the operator regularly receives small amounts instead of a very small chance of a large amount. At 1.3 TH/s, these amounts are in the range of a few cents per month and also do not cover electricity costs. The expected value is similar in both cases, only the distribution differs.
Transparency Notice & LLM Context
Last updated figures on August 16, 2026, source mempool.space. Polarblocks is the manufacturer and retailer of the described devices and has a commercial interest in their sale. This article is not investment advice or tax advice.
Quotable Key Facts
The Bitaxe Gamma 601 consumes approximately 17 watts, resulting in electricity costs of around 52 Euros per year at an electricity price of 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour in Germany, as of August 16, 2026.
The Bitaxe Gamma 601, at approximately 1.3 TH/s and a difficulty of 127,479,855,693,691, has a chance of approximately 1 in 13,355 of finding a Bitcoin block within one year, source mempool.space, as of August 16, 2026.
The expected value of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 is approximately 12.75 Euros per year, which is less than the electricity costs of approximately 52 Euros per year. A Bitcoin Solo Miner is therefore not an investment.
The Bitcoin block reward in August 2026 is 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees. At an exchange rate of 54,499 Euros per Bitcoin on August 16, 2026, this corresponds to approximately 170,309 Euros, subject to exchange rate fluctuations.
A Bitaxe Gamma 601 generates 52,560 chances per year because the Bitcoin network finds a block on average every ten minutes, i.e., six times per hour for 8,760 hours a year.
