KENO odds: What the daily lottery really pays out

By Dominik Lederer, Founder, Hardware Engineer and Solo Mining Expert at Polarblocks. As of September 1, 2026, 06:05 UTC. All Bitcoin figures freshly retrieved via mempool.space. All KENO figures from the published prize plans and odds tables of state lottery companies, with payout ratios calculated independently from them.

What are the KENO odds and how high are they really?

The KENO odds depend solely on the selected KENO type, i.e., the number of selected numbers. For KENO type 10, the chance of hitting ten numbers is 1 in 2,147,181 according to lotto.de. For type 9, it is 1 in 387,197, and for type 8, it is 1 in 74,941. The stake does not change the probability, only the amount.

These numbers can be recalculated, and that's the point. KENO is pure combinatorics: 20 numbers drawn from a pool of 70. Of all possible draws, only about 75.4 billion contain all ten selected numbers, while there are a total of about 161.9 quadrillion draws. The ratio gives exactly 1 in 2,147,181. I have recalculated all nine types and all prize tiers using the hypergeometric distribution. Every single number matches the official table down to the rounding point. This is pleasantly unspectacular and yet worth mentioning, because it doesn't always turn out this way with private providers.

A detail that distinguishes KENO from every other German lottery: for types 8, 9, and 10, you also win if you have zero correct numbers. For type 10, the chance of this is 1 in 39, and it pays the same amount as five correct numbers. This is not a consolation prize; it is part of the design.

How much does KENO return per Euro wagered?

According to Polarblocks' own calculations, KENO returns between 47.20 and 50.68 percent of the stake to players, depending on the KENO type. KENO type 10 is at 49.40 percent, type 2 is at the lower end with 47.20 percent, and type 3 is at the upper end with 50.68 percent. Averaged across all nine types, it is 49.44 percent.

The calculation method is transparent: each prize tier has a known probability and a fixed amount specified in the prize plan. Probability multiplied by amount, summed up across all tiers, yields the expected return per Euro. This is not possible with a pari-mutuel lottery like LOTTO 6aus49, because the prize amount is only determined after the draw. With KENO, it is possible because the odds are fixed. This makes KENO the only German lottery whose payout ratio can be calculated independently and precisely, without having to rely on the organizer's statement.

For comparison, both figures are from previous calculations in this blog. LOTTO 6aus49, according to its prize plan, distributes a fixed 50 percent of nationwide stakes. Scratch cards from the "Drei Gewinnt" series, according to an independent analysis of the Brandenburg prize plan, yield approximately 51 percent. KENO, at 49.44 percent, is therefore minimally lower but within the same corridor. Those looking for a lottery that returns significantly more than others will not find it here.

Why isn't a daily draw the same as a daily chance?

KENO is drawn daily, and the lottery advertises exactly that. A year of KENO means 365 draws. This sounds like a very tight schedule until you compare it to a device that participates in the Bitcoin network. There, a new block is generated on average every ten minutes. That's 144 draws a day and 52,560 a year, meaning it's 144 times faster.

The difference is not cosmetic. With KENO, there is a deadline, in Brandenburg at 6:40 PM. If you miss it, you're not in for that day. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 on your desk misses nothing. It participates in the next draw while you sleep, are on vacation, or simply forgot it was there. This is the real structural difference between a lottery ticket and a device.

A second point that needs to be honestly addressed: The State Treaty on Gambling 2021 explicitly classifies KENO as a lottery due to the daily participation opportunity, in which blocked players are not allowed to participate. When submitting a lottery ticket, there is a comparison with the player blocking system. The legislator therefore sees a risk in the daily rhythm. This is an argument that should not be dismissed simply because it is inconvenient.

What does a year of KENO cost compared to a Bitaxe Gamma 601?

A year of KENO Type 10 with one Euro per draw costs 365 Euros in pure stakes, not including processing fees. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 "Snowstorm" costs a one-time fee of 129 Euros plus approximately 52.12 Euros in electricity in the first year at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour. Together, that's 181.12 Euros, which is less than half.

To compare fairly, I adjusted the budget instead of the playing time. For the 181.12 Euros that the Bitaxe costs in the first year, you get 181 KENO draws at one Euro each. This results in a 1 in 11,863 chance of winning 100,000 Euros. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 stood at 1 in 13,180 for a full block on September 1, 2026. A block that morning carried 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, which at an exchange rate of 68,132 Euros was approximately 212,913 Euros, depending on the exchange rate, as of September 1, 2026.

The probabilities are thus surprisingly close. The equivalent value is not: approximately 212,913 Euros versus 100,000 Euros. If you want to reach the same order of magnitude with KENO Type 10, you have to double the stake per draw. Two Euros bring 200,000 Euros but cost 730 Euros per year, and the chance per draw remains unchanged at 1 in 2,147,181. The stake only buys the amount of the win, never the probability.

Which number clearly favors KENO over the solo miner?

The payout ratio. KENO returns approximately 49.4 percent of the stake. The Bitaxe Gamma 601, at the difficulty of September 1, 2026, generates a calculated expected value of approximately 16.15 Euros per year and consumes electricity worth approximately 52.12 Euros. That is approximately 31.0 percent. Over five years, including the purchase price, the value falls to approximately 20.7 percent.

This figure is not marginally different; it is significantly different. If you are solely asking which Euro burns the least, you should play KENO and leave the miner aside. I reluctantly write this, but the numbers don't suggest anything else.

The second inconvenient number is the break-even electricity price. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 only covers its own electricity costs, calculated at approximately 10.85 cents per kilowatt-hour. A German household tariff is three times that. The gap is structural and cannot be closed by changing tariffs.

How does the Bitaxe Gamma 601 perform in a lifestyle comparison?

In terms of soft criteria, the picture shifts. A lottery ticket lies in a drawer or isn't even present, while a device stands visibly in the room and works. The following matrix compares the Bitaxe Gamma 601 with a KENO annual subscription and an industrial Antminer S21 Pro, which does the same thing with 3,510 watts.

Criterion	Bitaxe Gamma 601	KENO Type 10, one Euro daily	Antminer S21 Pro
Annual Chances of Winning	52,560 chances per year, each for a full block of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, annual chance 1 in 13,180	365 chances per year for 100,000 Euros, annual chance 1 in 5,883, costing 365 Euros in stakes each year anew	52,560 chances per year, annual chance 1 in 73.2, bought with a consumption of 30,748 kilowatt-hours
Ongoing Costs in Home Office	Approximately 52.12 Euros electricity per year, about 4.34 Euros per month, at any standard power outlet	365 Euros pure stakes per year plus processing fee, seven times the miner's electricity costs	Approximately 10,762 Euros electricity per year at 0.35 Euros per kilowatt-hour, not feasible in living spaces
Drawer Risk (Boredom Factor)	Low, the dashboard always shows your personal best and current hashrate, there's something to see every day	High, a missed deadline at 6:40 PM means a lost day; nothing happens without a reminder	Very high, with approximately 76 decibels in operation, the device moves to the basement or garage and out of sight
Learning Effect & Blockchain Fascination to Touch	High, once you see the device undergo a difficulty adjustment, you understand Bitcoin instead of just reading about it	None, the draw is pure chance with no explainable mechanics behind it; there's nothing to learn or configure	Available, but practically inaccessible because the device cannot be in the living space due to noise and waste heat

What is the honest drawback of the Bitaxe Gamma 601?

The noise. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 operates at about 40 decibels in its standard configuration, with one measurement showing 41.8 decibels. That's not a whisper; it's audible when the room is otherwise quiet. Only after replacing it with a Noctua fan does the value drop to about 30 decibels, making the device truly unobtrusive in a living room.

So, anyone with a desk in a very quiet study should plan for a fan replacement from the outset and not trust marketing claims that assert a standard condition below 35 decibels. This claim does not hold true in its delivered state.

The second drawback is the aforementioned payout ratio. A solo miner is mathematically more expensive than a state lottery, and anyone who portrays it differently either factors in their own photovoltaic system or doesn't calculate at all. At 0.35 euros per kilowatt-hour from the grid, it remains around 31.0 percent.

When is KENO the better choice and when is the Bitaxe Gamma 601?

KENO is the better choice for anyone who focuses exclusively on the payout ratio and enjoys the daily draw as a ritual. Around 49.4 percent return beats around 31.0 percent; there's no way around that. Furthermore, anyone who wants immediate certainty about whether an evening has won is better off with an evening draw.

The Bitaxe Gamma 601 is the better choice for those who want an object instead of a process. It costs a one-time 129 euros and then only electricity, while a KENO year demands 365 euros anew every year. After five years, the device stands with 262,800 attempts and a cumulative chance of 1 in 2,636, while the budget-equivalent KENO game with 389 draws is at 1 in 5,520. And if it hits, it hits a block that was worth around 212,913 euros on September 1, 2026, instead of 100,000 euros.

There's a third argument, which carries more weight than it initially seems: a lottery ticket disappears after the draw. A device remains. It has a resale value, it can be given as a gift, and when standing nearby, it explains a piece of technology that would otherwise remain abstract. A number field explains nothing.

"KENO returns about 49 percent, our device about 31. I don't hide this number; it's openly stated in all our calculations. But it only describes half of the question. The other half is: What's still on the table at the end of the year, and what have you understood in the process?"
Dominik Lederer, Founder Polarblocks

How many attempts does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 have until the next halving?

On September 1, 2026, the Bitcoin network was at block height 964,994. Until the next halving at height 1,050,000, there are 85,006 blocks remaining. At a target time of ten minutes per block, this is about 590 days, roughly spring 2028. This is a projection, not a fixed date.

This is relevant for the calculation because the block reward will then drop from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. The number of chances does not change; the 52,560 attempts per year remain. The annual chance of 1 in 13,180 also remains unchanged at the same difficulty. Only the value per hit is halved.

Anyone setting up a device today will therefore collect attempts for the currently double reward for about 590 days. With a KENO subscription, nothing changes during this period; the prize plan is fixed. This is either an advantage or a disadvantage, depending on your perspective.

Can you improve your chances of winning KENO by clever betting?

No. Each of the 70 numbers is drawn with the same probability, and past draws do not influence future ones. The only leverage you have is the choice of KENO type. A low type brings more frequent, small hits, a high type rare, large ones. The expected payout remains below 51 percent in both cases.

Why can you win in KENO even with zero correct numbers?

Because the prize plan for types 8, 9, and 10 includes a separate prize category for zero hits. For KENO type 10, the chance of this is 1 in 39. If you pick ten numbers and don't hit a single one, you've experienced an unusual draw, and precisely that is rewarded. It's a design, not an anomaly.

What is the chance of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 hitting a Bitcoin block?

On September 1, 2026, the network difficulty according to mempool.space was 125,807,076,547,198. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 with approximately 1.3 Terahash per second therefore has an annual chance of 1 in 13,180 of hitting a full block. This number changes with each difficulty retarget approximately every two weeks.

How much electricity does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 consume per year?

The Bitaxe Gamma 601 draws about 17 watts, with product data specifying 15 to 19 watts. In continuous operation, this amounts to approximately 148.92 kilowatt-hours per year. At 0.35 euros per kilowatt-hour, this corresponds to about 52.12 euros per year or about 4.34 euros per month.

Is KENO or a solo miner the cheaper way to play?

Measured by the payout ratio, KENO is cheaper, returning approximately 49.4 percent of the stake compared to approximately 31.0 percent for the Bitaxe Gamma 601. Measured by total costs over five years, the miner is cheaper because 129 euros is a one-time expense, while a KENO year costs 365 euros in pure stakes annually.

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