Is Lotto 6/49 worth it? The honest calculation against 52,560 chances per year

By Dominik Lederer, Founder, Hardware Engineer & Solo Mining Expert at Polarblocks. As of August 20, 2026, 06:05 UTC. All network figures freshly retrieved from mempool.space, all lottery data from lotto.de.

Is Lotto 6aus49 financially worthwhile?

No. In LOTTO 6aus49, 50 percent of the stakes are distributed as winnings. Anyone who plays one betting slip per draw for a year stakes 124.80 Euros in pure stakes and statistically gets back about 62.40 Euros. The expected loss is thus around 62.40 Euros per year.

This figure is no secret and no accusation. It is openly stated in the prize plan. A lottery is designed so that half of the stake finances the system: taxes, levies, distribution, operation. Anyone who fills out a ticket is not buying a calculation that adds up. They are buying two draws of anticipation per week.

It only becomes interesting when the same rigor is applied to the alternatives. Very few people do this. A lottery ticket is naturally recorded as entertainment, while a Bitcoin solo miner is considered an investment and then measured against a yardstick it should never reach.

What is the exact probability of winning Lotto 6aus49?

According to lotto.de, the chance of six correct numbers with the Superzahl is 1 in 139,838,160 per draw, and of six correct numbers without the Superzahl is 1 in 15,537,573. From 49 numbers, 13,983,816 different combinations of six can be formed. The Superzahl from 0 to 9 multiplies this value by ten.

Two numbers from this table should be known by anyone who plays regularly. The chance of three correct numbers is 1 in 63, and of four correct numbers is 1 in 1,147. The majority of all paid out winnings fall into these small categories and are in the range of a few Euros.

Anyone who plays one betting slip per draw for a year has 104 attempts. Mathematically, this results in an annual chance of winning the jackpot of approximately 1 in 1,344,598. This is a different order of magnitude than the 1 in 140 million of a single draw, but still far beyond any imagination.

What does one year of Lotto 6aus49 cost compared to a solo miner?

One betting slip costs 1.20 Euros. With 104 draws per year, Wednesdays and Saturdays, this amounts to 124.80 Euros in pure stakes, plus a processing fee depending on the provider and federal state. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 from the Eco Line costs a one-time fee of 129 Euros and then about 52 Euros in electricity per year.

The two figures are surprisingly close, and this forms the actual comparison. In the first year, the miner costs 181 Euros, the lottery ticket 124.80 Euros. In the second year, the miner costs about 52 Euros, the lottery ticket again 124.80 Euros. From month fifteen, the ratio reverses.

The reason is trivial and yet rarely stated: a lottery ticket is consumed on the evening of the draw. A device still stands on the shelf afterwards. It can be sold, given away, or kept running. The stake in the lottery is a consumable, the miner is an item with residual value.

According to mempool.space, the difficulty on August 20, 2026, is 127,479,855,693,691 and the network hashrate is around 922 Exahash per second. This results in an annual chance of approximately 1 in 13,355 for 1.3 Terahash per second. One block yields 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, which at 59,372 Euros per Bitcoin is approximately 185,538 Euros, depending on the exchange rate, as of August 20, 2026, 06:05 UTC.

How do you honestly compare a game of chance with a Bitcoin Solo Miner?

In five steps that anyone can follow with a calculator. The order is important: first the annual stake, then the number of attempts, then the return rate. If you start with the jackpot amount, you've already lost the comparison, because the large number overshadows every other number in your mind.

1. Calculate annual stake instead of single price. 1.20 Euros sounds like nothing, 124.80 Euros a year sounds like a decision. For the miner, it's 129 Euros purchase plus about 52 Euros electricity in the first year and then only about 52 Euros.
2. Count attempts per year. LOTTO 6aus49 draws 104 times a year. The Bitcoin network generates 52,560 blocks a year at six blocks per hour. A continuously running solo miner participates in every single round, i.e., about 505 times as often.
3. Determine return rate. For the lottery, it's the official 50 percent. For the miner, it's the expected value divided by the electricity costs, currently about 13.89 Euros divided by about 52 Euros, which is about 27 percent.
4. Deduct residual value. A betting slip has zero value after the draw. A device can be resold. What remains at the end of the year belongs on the asset side, even if no one knows what the used price will be in three years.
5. Honestly state entertainment value. Both expenses are consumption. The question is not which one is profitable, but what kind of excitement you want to buy: two appointments per week or a dashboard that shows a new best value every day.

Why is the return rate for the Bitaxe worse than for the lottery?

Because the network does not take small devices into account. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 achieves a rate of around 27 percent with an expected value of around 13.89 Euros against around 52 Euros in electricity costs. LOTTO 6aus49, on the other hand, pays out 50 percent of the stakes. In this one key figure, the lottery clearly wins.

This is the unpleasant part of the comparison, and it belongs here and not in a footnote. A lottery operator guarantees the payout ratio in the prize plan. In solo mining, nobody guarantees anything. If the network difficulty increases, the expected value decreases while the electricity bill remains the same.

Against this stand three things that do not appear in any ratio. The number of attempts is around 505 times higher. The annual chance of winning the main prize is around a hundred times better, at 1 in 13,355 versus 1 in 1,344,598. And the miner retains a residual value, while the ticket expires.

Therefore, only the double statement is honest: those who look solely at the return rate are better off playing the lottery. Those who look at the number and magnitude of chances are ahead with a solo miner. Both are losing propositions on average, and anyone who promises otherwise is calculating inaccurately.

Which choice suits which person?

That depends on what someone wants back from their stake. Those seeking the highest guaranteed return rate will stick with the lottery ticket. Those who want as many chances as possible and an object on the shelf will choose the miner. Those who expect both simultaneously will be disappointed by both sides.

Bitaxe Gamma 601 vs. LOTTO 6aus49 and industrial miners, as of August 20, 2026

Criterion	Bitaxe Gamma 601	LOTTO 6aus49	Antminer S21 Pro
Chances of winning per year	52,560 chances per year, each for a full block of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, annual chance approx. 1 in 13,355	104 draws per year, jackpot chance per draw 1 in 139,838,160, annual chance approx. 1 in 1,344,598 for one betting slip	Annual chance approx. 1 in 74, but only achievable in a hall with heavy current and hearing protection
Running costs in the home office	Approx. 52 Euros electricity per year, approx. 4.34 Euros per month, on any standard socket	124.80 Euros pure stakes per year for one betting slip per draw, 1.20 Euros per field plus processing fee	Approx. 10,762 Euros electricity per year at 3,510 watts, plus power cable, ventilation and sound insulation
Drawer-danger (boredom factor)	Low, because the dashboard shows new best values daily and the device stands visibly on the shelf below 35 dB	High, because nothing happens between Wednesday and Saturday and the ticket disappears into the jacket pocket	Very high in living areas, because 76 decibels virtually end operation after a few days
Learning effect & tangible blockchain fascination	High, because difficulty, hashrate and pool connection are visible and modifiable in your own browser	None, the draw runs entirely with the organizer, the player only sees the result	Present, but practically only accessible to operators with commercial infrastructure

I'm not selling a better calculation than the lottery ticket. The lottery's payout ratio is higher than a Bitaxe's return. What I am selling are 52,560 rounds instead of 104, an annual chance around a hundred times higher, and a device that doesn't end up in the trash after the draw.

Dominik Lederer, Founder Polarblocks

What is the chance of 6 correct numbers in Lotto 6aus49?

According to lotto.de, the chance of six correct numbers with the Superzahl is 1 in 139,838,160 per draw, without the Superzahl it's 1 in 15,537,573. From 49 numbers, there are 13,983,816 combinations of six, and the Superzahl from 0 to 9 multiplies this value by ten.

What does one year of Lotto 6aus49 cost with one betting slip?

One betting slip costs 1.20 Euros. With 104 draws per year, this amounts to 124.80 Euros in pure stakes, plus a processing fee which varies depending on the provider and federal state. Statistically, about 62.40 Euros of this flows back as winnings.

Does a Bitaxe Gamma 601 have better chances of winning than a lottery ticket?

Calculated annually, yes. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 with 1.3 Terahash per second has an annual chance of approximately 1 in 13,355, while one betting slip per draw has an annual chance of approximately 1 in 1,344,598. That's a difference of about a hundredfold.

Is a Bitcoin solo miner therefore a better investment than the lottery?

No, both are, on average, a losing proposition. The Bitaxe Gamma 601 has an expected value of about 13.89 Euros per year against about 52 Euros in electricity costs. LOTTO 6aus49 pays out 50 percent of stakes. Neither of these expenses is an investment.

How many draws are there in Lotto 6aus49 per year?

There are 104 draws per year, every Wednesday at 6:25 PM and Saturday at 7:25 PM. The Bitcoin network generates 52,560 blocks in the same period, with six blocks per hour, in which a continuously running solo miner participates.