Scratch-off tickets: What one ticket a week really costs you in a year

By Dominik Lederer, Founder, Hardware Engineer and Solo-Mining Expert at Polarblocks. As of August 29, 2026, 06:08 UTC. All Bitcoin figures freshly retrieved via mempool.space, all lottery data from the published prize plans of the state lottery companies.

What does a scratch card really cost per week for a year?

A "Drei Gewinnt" series scratch card costs 2 euros. Anyone who treats themselves to one every week will end up with 52 tickets and 104 euros in pure stakes per year. For the 1-euro series "Echt Goldig," it's 52 euros; for "Diamant 7" at 20 euros, it's 1,040 euros. The money is gone after scratching.

This figure sounds harmless, and that is precisely its appeal. Two euros at the checkout feels like nothing. A coffee costs more. But the habit is what counts, not the individual item, and after twelve months, a three-digit amount is on the bill, for which there is no object and no receipt on the shelf.

For comparison, because the proximity is so striking: One LOTTO 6aus49 ticket for all 104 draws of a year costs 124.80 euros in pure stakes. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 in the "Snowstorm" edition costs 129 euros. These three figures are so close that the comparison is compelling.

What are the actual odds of winning with scratch cards?

According to the published prize plan of LOTTO Brandenburg, retrieved on August 29, 2026, the chance of winning the top prize per ticket is 1 in 700,000 for "Drei Gewinnt" with 15,000 euros, 1 in 500,000 for "Echt Goldig" with 5,000 euros, and 1 in 2,000,000 for "Diamant 7" with one million euros.

It only gets interesting when you extrapolate this individual chance over a year. Someone who buys 52 "Drei Gewinnt" tickets has a theoretical chance of 1 in 13,462 of winning the top prize. For "Diamant 7" with 1,040 euros annual stake, it's 1 in 38,462. For "Goldene 7" at 5 euros, it's 1 in 23,077 with 260 euros per year.

So, buying a more expensive ticket does not buy a better chance. It buys a larger amount behind the chance. If you wanted to optimize your money for pure hit probability, you would have to choose the cheaper series and accept top prizes of 5,000 or 15,000 euros there.

How much do scratch cards return according to the prize plan?

The return rate can be calculated directly from the prize plans: total prize money divided by the total stake of the entire ticket series. For "Echt Goldig," this results in 260,000 euros in winnings from 500,000 tickets at 1 euro each, which is 52.0 percent. For "Drei Gewinnt," it's 714,000 euros from 1.4 million euros in stakes, or 51.0 percent.

The "Magic Pearl" series at 5 euros lands at 54.0 percent, "X50" at 10 euros at 55.5 percent. The "€urado" series at 3 euros drops significantly to 35.0 percent. For two other series, the table published on the display only shows around 18 to 19 percent, which indicates that not all prize categories are printed there. This article deliberately does not state a quota for these two.

For context: LOTTO 6aus49 has a legally fixed payout ratio of 50 percent of the nationwide stakes. Scratch cards are in the same ballpark. Both figures mean the same thing: on average, about half of every euro staked comes back, the rest goes to the state, distribution, and beneficiaries.

Why is the annual chance of a Bitaxe Gamma 601 almost identical to a 2-euro scratch card?

The Bitaxe Gamma 601 calculates at around 1.3 terahash per second on the same blocks as any industrial farm. With a difficulty of 125,807,076,547,198, measured via mempool.space on August 29, 2026, this results in an annual chance of 1 in 13,180 for its own block. A 2-euro scratch card per week is at 1 in 13,462.

The difference is not in the probability. It is in what lies behind it. The top prize for "Drei Gewinnt" is 15,000 euros. A Bitcoin block reward is 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, which on August 29, 2026, at 06:08 UTC, was around 209,666 euros, depending on the exchange rate and changing with every market movement.

Then there's the rhythm. The Bitcoin network finds a block on average every ten minutes, which is 52,560 per year. A Bitaxe participates in every single one of these 52,560 attempts, every second, even at night, even on vacation. A scratch card has exactly one moment, and then it's paper.

And the expected value? The Bitaxe's is negative, and it should be said openly: around 15.91 euros per year are offset by around 52.12 euros in electricity costs, at 0.35 euros per kilowatt-hour. That's a 30.5 percent return. Mathematically, the device would only cover its own electricity costs at around 10.7 cents per kilowatt-hour.

A Year of Luck in Comparison: Bitaxe Gamma 601, Scratch Card, and Industrial Miner

	Bitaxe Gamma 601 (129 Euros one-time)	Scratch Card "Drei Gewinnt", 1 card per week	Antminer S21 Pro (Industrial Device)
Chances of winning per year	52,560 chances per year, each for a full block of 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees, annual chance 1 in 13,180	52 chances per year, each for a maximum of 15,000 Euros, annual chance 1 in 13,462 according to prize plan	52,560 chances per year, annual chance 1 in 73.2, but only operable in basement or container
Running costs in home office	Around 52 Euros electricity per year, about 4.34 Euros per month, at any standard socket	104 Euros stake per year, new every year, of which about 51 percent is returned according to prize plan	Around 11,377 Euros electricity per year at 0.370 Euros per kilowatt-hour, plus 76 decibels of continuous noise
Drawer-risk (boredom factor)	Low, because the device is visibly on the shelf, the best difficulty can show a new best value daily, and it retains a resale value	High, because a ticket is done in thirty seconds and ends up in the trash, with no remnants and no memory	High, because the device is banished from the living space due to noise and heat, and then no one looks at it anymore
Learning effect & Blockchain fascination to touch	High, because Difficulty, Hashrate, Pool selection, and Wallet address become visible and modifiable on your own device	None, because the result was fixed when the ticket series was printed and cannot be influenced by anything	Present, but practically inaccessible, because the device is not where you live

What are the disadvantages of the Bitaxe Gamma 601 compared to a scratch card?

Three, and they are openly stated here. First, the return rate: about 30.5 percent versus about 51 percent for the ticket. Second, the initial cost of 129 euros before anything even starts running. Third, the noise level. The stock fan of the Bitaxe Gamma 601 is about 40 decibels, clearly audible in a quiet bedroom.

The 40 decibels can be fixed, but it costs extra. With a Noctua fan, the value drops to around 30 decibels, and then the device is actually suitable for the living room. If you want to operate the Bitaxe right next to your bed, you should plan for this modification from the outset and not rely on the stock configuration.

The point that remains: a ticket is consumed after scratching. A device is not. After twelve months, the Bitaxe is still on the shelf, has a resale value, has made 52,560 attempts, and incidentally explained how a block header is created. The scratch card budget of 104 euros is then completely spent.

"A scratch card sells you thirty seconds of excitement and keeps half your money. A Bitaxe sells you 52,560 attempts a year and an object that is still there afterwards. The probability is almost the same, but the value behind it is not."

Dominik Lederer, Founder Polarblocks

Are scratch cards better than LOTTO 6aus49?

In terms of payout ratio, they are almost the same. LOTTO 6aus49 pays out a legally fixed 50 percent of the stakes, while scratch card series, according to the prize plan, are between approximately 51 and 55 percent. The difference lies in speed and amount: scratch cards provide an immediate decision, but the top prizes are smaller.

How many Bitcoin blocks has a Bitaxe already found?

As of August 2026, several solo finds by small home devices have been documented on-chain, including block 957,382 from July 10, 2026, via Public Pool. Polarblocks tracks these cases individually, with block height, timestamp, and reward, in the main article on documented Bitaxe block finds.

Can a Bitaxe Gamma 601 cover its own electricity costs?

Mathematically, only at around 10.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. The German household tariff is three times that. A Bitaxe Gamma 601 is therefore not a savings product, but a lottery ticket with residual value and a learning effect. The full calculation is in the expected value calculation for the Bitaxe.

What does a year of Lotto cost compared to a year of scratch cards?

A LOTTO 6aus49 ticket for all 104 draws costs 124.80 euros in pure stakes plus processing fees. A 2-euro scratch card per week costs 104 euros. The details of the Lotto calculation are in the honest calculation for LOTTO 6aus49.